Speaker Mike Johnson fights to save the House Republican majority — and his job

Multiple Republicans said they don’t expect Johnson to stick around as leader if the GOP loses the majority. That could spark a fierce battle between two of his closest allies.

House Speaker Mike Johnson could hold on for another two years — if Republicans retain control of the House, GOP members say.Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images file

WASHINGTON — As Speaker Mike Johnson marks one year on the job Friday, he’s fighting hard to preserve House Republicans’ razor-thin majority — and his speakership.

Multiple House Republicans said they believe the Louisiana Republican, who rose from relative obscurity to the top of the conference last year, can beat back his critics and win the speaker’s gavel for another two years. But only if the GOP manages to win control of the House again in November’s elections.

Johnson’s chances will improve significantly if Republicans expand their majority. Lawmakers typically reward leaders who log significant miles on the campaign trail and rake in cash, as Johnson has.

But if the Democrats triumph on Nov. 5, four GOP lawmakers — including allies close to Johnson — said they were certain the speaker would step down from leadership.

“If we are in the minority, there is no chance that Johnson is leader,” said a House Republican who has campaigned with Johnson, one of several lawmakers who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

“No way” would Johnson seek to be minority leader, as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., did when Democrats were swept out of power in the tea party wave of 2010, said a second GOP colleague who also campaigned with Johnson this fall.

Johnson could also be forced out if House Republicans win in November but their fragile majority shrinks even further, with at least two conservatives vowing they won’t vote for him and others on the fence.

If Johnson is out of the picture, it could spark a fierce battle for minority leader between two of his key lieutenants and most trusted advisers, both political mentors of Johnson’s: Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

Johnson won’t address any questions about what he’d do in the minority and hasn’t discussed the possibility with lawmakers or aides.

“Truthfully, I haven’t considered that because I am 100% focused on the job at hand, and I genuinely believe that we are going to win. I’m going to be the speaker of the House,” Johnson said in a recent sit-down interview with NBC News at a campaign stop in Hellertown, Pennsylvania. “I haven’t devoted one moment of thought to the other alternative.”

Regardless of whether Johnson stays or goes in the minority, it will be a “drag-out dogfight” for the top job, said one Republican official, even as the party’s wounds from the last two bitter and contentious fights for speaker remain fresh.

"It's going to be a free-for-all" if Republicans lose the House and Trump loses the White House, a third House GOP lawmaker added.

Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, could be a contender for minority leader if Republicans lose the House.Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images file

Others on the current leadership team prefer to stay out of the battle up top: Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., according to a source, will aim to keep his current vote-counting post, the No. 3 position now but the No. 2 position in the minority.

Meanwhile, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has set her sights beyond the confines of congressional leadership, eyeing a Cabinet post in a potential Donald Trump administration instead, according to two sources privy to conversations between the Stefanik and Trump teams.

“She is traveling the country on his behalf, donating millions of dollars to the team and is a top national surrogate,” said one GOP lawmaker who has been watching Stefanik’s moves. “The Trump team is very much in sync with her.”